WKU/MTSU to MAC may be "on hold." (2024)

Post: #41

(11-03-2021 11:21 PM)Milwaukee Wrote: Still seems like an unusual arrangement, when their broadcasting arrangement would only run until 2027 (5 years). ...

This is what actually makes it plausible ... the MAC wouldn't have been considering inviting WKU/MTSU without a modification of the total contract payment (even if just a pro-rata increase), a modification would naturally involve a contract extension when there is only 5 years left on the current contract, and ESPN asking for a GOR on the term of the deal would be more understandable, especially if it is more than a pro-rata increase.

A 20 year contract extension is not plausible, so a 25 year GOR is equally implausible, but a 10 year contract extension tied to a GOR over the 15 year term of the contract makes business sense from ESPN's perspective.

_____________

(11-04-2021 07:43 AM)Milwaukee Wrote: ... Yet, we do know that ESPN has tried to coerce schools into signing logn GORs before - - such as the AAC schools which they tried to get a 12 year GOR - - only 8 of 12 went along with the idea - - the others refused.

That lends some idea to the credibility at least of the idea that ESPN might have tried to coerce the MAC schools into signing a long-term (15 or 17 year) GOR, with WKU or MTSU possibly being the ones who are balking this time. That wouldn't be hard to believe. ...

If ESPN offers more money, and in return wants the greater assurance of what they are paying for that comes with a GOR ... that is not "coercion". If the extra money is enough that the MAC is simply passing the condition on to WKU/MTSU, then its a free choice by WKU/MTSU ... stay in CUSA, relatively free to move further up if invited, or take the security and stability of the spot in the MAC, but also accept that they have to guarantee that they are not introducing instability into the MAC.

It makes perfect sense for the MAC to not only accept but welcome the GOR condition on the contract extension/upgrade, as over the past 25 years, the MAC has played more often with 13 than with 14 ... going to 13 with Buffalo then 14 with UCF, then to 12 as Marshall and UCF left, then to 13 again with Temple, then staying at 13 when intended #14 UMass joined in the same year that Temple left.

If WKU/MTSU balk, then the MAC continues under the current contract conditions.

(This post was last modified: 11-04-2021 09:51 AM by BruceMcF.)

Post: #42

(11-04-2021 09:32 AM)quo vadis Wrote:

(11-04-2021 09:02 AM)TitanTopper Wrote:

(11-04-2021 08:31 AM)TopperCard Wrote:

(11-04-2021 08:05 AM)panite Wrote:

(11-04-2021 07:58 AM)esayem Wrote: If this is anywhere close to true, I don’t blame the MAC. They’re sick of being a stepping stone conference. You want to be part of the most stable G5 league? Put your pen where your mouth is.

Good for them.

And the OBE, American, CUSA, and the Sunbelt haven't been stepping stones. Realignment like crap rolls downhill.

GOR isn't just for new members, the current membership has to sign on via vote. The MAC teams have been together so long (and passed over in realignment), that they're probably ok signing a long term GOR.

Whereas teams in the conferences you mentioned were always being considered as realignment targets, so it makes sense none of them would ever agree to a GOR.

Not to piss anyone on here off, but to your point about the MAC schools being together so long and passed over for realignment…

I view it kind of like purgatory. It may be a “safe” spot for WKU and seemingly stable in a very unstable time for our school, but I just don’t see a long term upside to the MAC. I view them as a very “status quo” league that is simple comfortable where they are and ok staying in their lane.

Maybe a pipe dream, but I want a little more from WKU than that. No question…We’re in a tough spot. But hey, that the G5 for ya!

I agree with that assessment. The MAC is stable, but at a low, stagnant, going nowhere level. If you have aspirations to move up the ladder, it would be better for you if the Sun Belt or AAC had come calling.

That said, sometimes the choices in life are between meh and bad, and IMO, the MAC is meh while the current CUSA is ... bad, LOL.

Might not be to bad though with Liberty and NMSU joining if they stay. Five CUSA teams, 2 independents, 2 FCS move ups, plus one or both of UMass and UConn FB only. You just need 1 more FCS school for 12 for FB or only take one of UMass or UConn if you only want 10 schools for FB. If the whole thing goes south again re-apply to the MAC. Your still rolling the dice though of security and stability, verses the opposite decision of instability and lack of security. Just have to pick your poison and live with it.

Post: #43

(11-04-2021 09:38 AM)BruceMcF Wrote:

(11-03-2021 11:21 PM)Milwaukee Wrote: Still seems like an unusual arrangement, when their broadcasting arrangement would only run until 2027 (5 years). ...

This is what actually makes it plausible ... the MAC wouldn't have been considering inviting WKU/MTSU without a modification of the total contract payment (even if just a pro-rata increase), a modification would naturally involve a contract extension when there is only 5 years left on the current contract, and ESPN asking for a GOR on the term of the deal would be more understandable, especially if it is more than a pro-rata increase.

A 20 year contract extension is not plausible, so a 25 year GOR is equally implausible, but a 10 year contract extension tied to a GOR over the 15 year term of the contract makes business sense from ESPN's perspective.

_____________

(11-04-2021 07:43 AM)Milwaukee Wrote: ... Yet, we do know that ESPN has tried to coerce schools into signing logn GORs before - - such as the AAC schools which they tried to get a 12 year GOR - - only 8 of 12 went along with the idea - - the others refused.

That lends some idea to the credibility at least of the idea that ESPN might have tried to coerce the MAC schools into signing a long-term (15 or 17 year) GOR, with WKU or MTSU possibly being the ones who are balking this time. That wouldn't be hard to believe. ...

If ESPN offers more money, and in return wants the greater assurance of what they are paying for that comes with a GOR ... that is not "coercion". If the extra money is enough that the MAC is simply passing the condition on to WKU/MTSU, then its a free choice by WKU/MTSU ... stay in CUSA, relatively free to move further up if invited, or take the security and stability of the spot in the MAC, but also accept that they have to guarantee that they are not introducing instability into the MAC.

It makes perfect sense for the MAC to not only accept but welcome the GOR condition on the contract extension/upgrade, as over the past 25 years, the MAC has played more often with 13 than with 14 ... going to 13 with Buffalo then 14 with UCF, then to 12 as Marshall and UCF left, then to 13 again with Temple, then staying at 13 when intended #14 UMass joined in the same year that Temple left.

If WKU/MTSU balk, then the MAC continues under the current contract conditions.

Bingo, we have a winner!

Post: #44

I would sign it if I'm these two, and just hold my nose in the MAC, because I'm not sure ESPN will allow the AAC to raid from the SBC or MAC if they hold the rights to all three.

The AAC could stand firm at 12 should they lose Memphis and SMU. If they lose Memphis and the MWC loses BSU, then it gets more interesting as to who backfills where. But I'd have to imagine only 1 of WKU/MTSU has a path to the American.... not both.

If both Memphis AND USF get calls up, you could have two Eastern slots open in the American. This is assuming the Big 12 is even expanding in 2-3 years. Or the American stays at 12 with Navy moving East. It's all very fluid and hypothetical.

(This post was last modified: 11-04-2021 10:10 AM by RUScarlets.)

Post: #45

Thanks Miami (Oh!) Yeah for coming on one of our boards as we slug it out between people who, don't want to leave the A10. First time s real slug fest.

Slug Fest link

Post: #46

(11-04-2021 09:38 AM)BruceMcF Wrote: It makes perfect sense for the MAC to not only accept but welcome the GOR condition on the contract extension/upgrade, as over the past 25 years, the MAC has played more often with 13 than with 14 ... going to 13 with Buffalo then 14 with UCF, then to 12 as Marshall and UCF left, then to 13 again with Temple, then staying at 13 when intended #14 UMass joined in the same year that Temple left.

If WKU/MTSU balk, then the MAC continues under the current contract conditions.

Yea, the MAC seems like the one G5 league that would be happy to exchange a GOR for more money. I admire the MAC in that they seem to really know who they are, have maintained a coherent identity, and above all else the schools involved seem to like playing each other. Outside of maybe one or two schools I could totally see them being good with continuing to roll as-is for another 15.

Post: #47

If the move does not happen, CUSA should engage/reengage with Missouri State. They fit well with MTSU/WKU and would help provide a bridge to Louisiana Tech.

Missouri State, Louisiana Tech, MTSU, and WKU as the core 4 of the CUSA with Eastern Outposts of Liberty/FIU and Western Outposts of UTEP/NMSU

Not anyone's dream conference, but that is a solid/workable core of 8

(This post was last modified: 11-04-2021 10:24 AM by solohawks.)

Post: #48

(11-04-2021 10:23 AM)solohawks Wrote: If the move does not happen, CUSA should engage/reengage with Missouri State. They fit well with MTSU/WKU and would help provide a bridge to Louisiana Tech.

Missouri State, Louisiana Tech, MTSU, and WKU as the core 4 of the CUSA with Eastern Outposts of Liberty/FIU and Western Outposts of UTEP/NMSU

Not anyone's dream conference, but that is a solid/workable core of 8

Jacksonville State's geography works well with those four schools as well and brings you to a central 5. Add one more East Texas school between SHSU and La Tech and you actually have very good geography among the geographically-central group of the conference.

Post: #49

(11-04-2021 10:23 AM)solohawks Wrote: If the move does not happen, CUSA should engage/reengage with Missouri State. They fit well with MTSU/WKU and would help provide a bridge to Louisiana Tech.

If CUSA holds onto a pair of FBS schools previously thought to be on the move, that might help make them more attractive to Missouri State. Also, as they could play an eight game schedule with 9 schools ... and could have a top two CCG ... they would be able to allow Missouri State to start their transition a year later if it would make the move easier on Missouri State.

But its pure speculation how close or how far away Missouri State is from being interested in the "new" CUSA whether holding WKU/MTSU would be enough to tip the balance.

(This post was last modified: 11-04-2021 10:31 AM by BruceMcF.)

Post: #50

(11-03-2021 08:43 PM)IWokeUpLikeThis Wrote: I’m on WKU/MTSU’s side. That’s ridiculous. A 5-year GOR, fine.

Depends, our contract is up in four years. *IF* ESPN is telling us "Add those schools and we up your contract to 3M/school and extend 10 years then a 14 year GOR would be them signing onto the new media deal.

If the MAC schools are also signing on, then this is fair.

Post: #51

(11-04-2021 07:07 AM)Frank the Tank Wrote: None of the proposed GOR makes sense. If the intent is to cover the MAC’s risk with the existing or an extended TV deal, then raising the exit fee for WKU and MTSU is a much more direct and less toxic way of achieving that here.

1. I don't think that's the motivation.
2. I don't think an exit fee would do the job there.

I think the MAC is tired of schools using them as a steppingstone. I remember saying, in arguments with Big East football school fans, "We were here before you joined, we'll be here after you're gone." There's a weariness with the constant churn, and a wariness.

If you're Bowling Green or Western Michigan, you're looking at WKU and MTSU and seeing Marshall, seeing UCF, UMass, Temple.

Key point: The MAC doesn't *need* WKU and MTSU. Even in terms of recruiting students--that's a limited benefit. Akron is still going to be in Akron, Ohio no matter what happens. Central Michigan is still going to be in snowy Michigan.

WKU and MTSU to the MAC does a lot for WKU and MTSU right now. It doesn't do a lot for the MAC. You get more Saturday football games, 3/7 instead of 2/6. A lot of people on the board see ESPN behind every move, so let's say ESPN is offering to DOUBLE the tv contract to gut CUSA. That's, what, $2M a year instead of $1M?

So if you're the MAC brain trust, and you're divided over whether to
1. Stand pat with 12 teams, stay off the realignment merry-go-round or
2. Add Western Kentucky and Middle Tennessee, with the risk that one or the other wants to move along for the next opportunity

Then demanding a serious commitment makes sense. An exit fee big enough to deter movement doesn't do the job, because it's transparently an "exit penalty" and not "liquidated damages". If Middle Tennessee gets an AAC invite, they'll leave and fight the exit fee in court.

A grant-of-rights, on the other hand, has a much better chance in court. Just because we don't have a half-dozen cases of college sports grants-of-rights getting taken to court and failing.

And if WKU and MTSU are reluctant to sign a GOR, doesn't that make the point of the "MAC Stand Pat" faction?

Quote: This sounds like something put out there by someone with C-USA interests to try to stir the pot in a desperate attempt to poison the well and save the conference. I don’t buy this story at all.

I have no idea if it's a real thing or not. But it makes some sense.

Post: #52

(11-04-2021 10:12 AM)Steve1981 Wrote: Thanks Miami (Oh!) Yeah for coming on one of our boards as we slug it out between people who, don't want to leave the A10. First time s real slug fest.

Slug Fest link

Unfortunately we've probably shot ourselves in the foot too many times at this point to warrant being considered, even if something like MTSU backs out but WKU wants to continue moving comes up.

Not a great look to publicly say "We're bringing football only. Here's our packet to the CUSA" and then not end up football only in the CUSA and then go crawling to the MAC with a "turns out our only option is all sports with you, please don't consider it our last resort we promise to stay"

Post: #53

(11-04-2021 10:51 AM)Bull_In_Exile Wrote:

(11-03-2021 08:43 PM)IWokeUpLikeThis Wrote: I’m on WKU/MTSU’s side. That’s ridiculous. A 5-year GOR, fine.

Depends, our contract is up in four years. *IF* ESPN is telling us "Add those schools and we up your contract to 3M/school and extend 10 years then a 14 year GOR would be them signing onto the new media deal.

If the MAC schools are also signing on, then this is fair.

Also worth remembering that there's no longer a big gulf in TV money between the Owlmerican and the other G conferences, new members are reportedly starting just over $2 million. Unless a MAC school thinks they're getting a Big 12 invite any conference move may wind up with a bigger increase in travel expenses than revenue.

Post: #54

Post: #55

(11-04-2021 10:55 AM)e-parade Wrote:

(11-04-2021 10:12 AM)Steve1981 Wrote: Thanks Miami (Oh!) Yeah for coming on one of our boards as we slug it out between people who, don't want to leave the A10. First time s real slug fest.

Slug Fest link

Unfortunately we've probably shot ourselves in the foot too many times at this point to warrant being considered, even if something like MTSU backs out but WKU wants to continue moving comes up.

Not a great look to publicly say "We're bringing football only. Here's our packet to the CUSA" and then not end up football only in the CUSA and then go crawling to the MAC with a "turns out our only option is all sports with you, please don't consider it our last resort we promise to stay"

Don't say we, but hold Swamy and Meehan accountable as they are pulling our AD strings.

Post: #56

(11-04-2021 11:09 AM)Steve1981 Wrote:

(11-04-2021 10:55 AM)e-parade Wrote:

(11-04-2021 10:12 AM)Steve1981 Wrote: Thanks Miami (Oh!) Yeah for coming on one of our boards as we slug it out between people who, don't want to leave the A10. First time s real slug fest.

Slug Fest link

Unfortunately we've probably shot ourselves in the foot too many times at this point to warrant being considered, even if something like MTSU backs out but WKU wants to continue moving comes up.

Not a great look to publicly say "We're bringing football only. Here's our packet to the CUSA" and then not end up football only in the CUSA and then go crawling to the MAC with a "turns out our only option is all sports with you, please don't consider it our last resort we promise to stay"

Don't say we, but hold Swamy and Meehan accountable as they are pulling our AD strings.

I mean I'm not saying "we" in terms of everyone at UMass. I'm saying it in terms of the public statement that our AD made where he said "we"

Post: #57

(11-04-2021 11:03 AM)Bogg Wrote:

(11-04-2021 10:51 AM)Bull_In_Exile Wrote:

(11-03-2021 08:43 PM)IWokeUpLikeThis Wrote: I’m on WKU/MTSU’s side. That’s ridiculous. A 5-year GOR, fine.

Depends, our contract is up in four years. *IF* ESPN is telling us "Add those schools and we up your contract to 3M/school and extend 10 years then a 14 year GOR would be them signing onto the new media deal.

If the MAC schools are also signing on, then this is fair.

Also worth remembering that there's no longer a big gulf in TV money between the Owlmerican and the other G conferences, new members are reportedly starting just over $2 million. Unless a MAC school thinks they're getting a Big 12 invite any conference move may wind up with a bigger increase in travel expenses than revenue.

MTSU and WKU should just sign the grant of rights. If either of them becomes a candidate for a slot in a more prestigious, well-compensated league in the future then litigate the GOR and exit fees in the future. The only scenario I see where either one of has a chance to 'move up,' it you want to call it that, would be if Memphis gets a Big XII invite after OU & Texas leave and the AAC wants another school to get back to 14. However, I don't see that happening because (a) I don't think Boise or Memphis is getting a Big XII invite; (b) even if Memphis leaves the AAC, there are better replacement candidates in the Sun Belt and MAC than WKU and MTSU and if the Sun Belt lost, say, Marshall to the AAC, the Belt would not pick WKU or MTSU to replace Marshall unless it had zero other options; (b) the AAC has shown a willingness to operate with 11 teams, and could easily stick with 13 in FB if Memphis leaves; © if Memphis does leave, it could spur Navy also depart and return to independence, obviating the need for the AAC to add a team to get back to an even number.

The real question here is for the foreseeable future, which of the following WKU and MTSU would prefer:

Conference USA
NMSU, UTEP, Sam Houston, Louisiana Tech, Jacksonville State, WKU, MTSU, Liberty, FIU, UMass* (FB-only), and a 3rd FCS call-up TBD;

OR

MAC
North: Buffalo, Toledo, Bowling Green, Eastern Michigan, Central Michigan, Western Michigan, Northern Illinois
South: Kent State, Akron, Ohio, Miami (OH), Ball State, Western Kentucky, Middle Tennessee

I think the latter option is unquestionably better.

Post: #58

Don't like the MAC for MTSU and/or WKU.

Don't like MTSU and/or WKU for the MAC.

It seems like a semi-panic move for all involved -- and those seldom work out well.

A lot of folks believe we are not at the end of the road with realignment/expansion on either the "P5" or "G5" level.

Patience is probably a pretty good option here since there's no good reason to expect either Middle or Western to lose their places in the pecking order anytime soon.

And the MAC would be better served should any Midwest I-AA schools already in the footprint that are deemed a good fit decide to move up.

Post: #59

(11-04-2021 11:25 AM)PeteTheChop Wrote: It seems like a semi-panic move for all involved

I don't see how you infer panic in what the MAC is doing.

Quote:And the MAC would be better served should any Midwest I-AA schools already in the footprint that are deemed a good fit decide to move up.

I doubt the MAC is much interested in schools now in the footprint. It would probably like to carefully grow the footprint if possible. Adding Western Kentucky and Middle Tennessee does that.

I personally think Massachusetts has more to add, but it appears UMass wasn't willing to make an all-sports commitment and that's what the MAC wanted.

Post: #60

(11-04-2021 11:25 AM)CarlSmithCenter Wrote:

(11-04-2021 11:03 AM)Bogg Wrote:

(11-04-2021 10:51 AM)Bull_In_Exile Wrote:

(11-03-2021 08:43 PM)IWokeUpLikeThis Wrote: I’m on WKU/MTSU’s side. That’s ridiculous. A 5-year GOR, fine.

Depends, our contract is up in four years. *IF* ESPN is telling us "Add those schools and we up your contract to 3M/school and extend 10 years then a 14 year GOR would be them signing onto the new media deal.

If the MAC schools are also signing on, then this is fair.

Also worth remembering that there's no longer a big gulf in TV money between the Owlmerican and the other G conferences, new members are reportedly starting just over $2 million. Unless a MAC school thinks they're getting a Big 12 invite any conference move may wind up with a bigger increase in travel expenses than revenue.

MTSU and WKU should just sign the grant of rights. If either of them becomes a candidate for a slot in a more prestigious, well-compensated league in the future then litigate the GOR and exit fees in the future. The only scenario I see where either one of has a chance to 'move up,' it you want to call it that, would be if Memphis gets a Big XII invite after OU & Texas leave and the AAC wants another school to get back to 14. However, I don't see that happening because (a) I don't think Boise or Memphis is getting a Big XII invite; (b) even if Memphis leaves the AAC, there are better replacement candidates in the Sun Belt and MAC than WKU and MTSU and if the Sun Belt lost, say, Marshall to the AAC, the Belt would not pick WKU or MTSU to replace Marshall unless it had zero other options; (b) the AAC has shown a willingness to operate with 11 teams, and could easily stick with 13 in FB if Memphis leaves; © if Memphis does leave, it could spur Navy also depart and return to independence, obviating the need for the AAC to add a team to get back to an even number.

The real question here is for the foreseeable future, which of the following WKU and MTSU would prefer:

Conference USA
NMSU, UTEP, Sam Houston, Louisiana Tech, Jacksonville State, WKU, MTSU, Liberty, FIU, UMass* (FB-only), and a 3rd FCS call-up TBD;

OR

MAC
North: Buffalo, Toledo, Bowling Green, Eastern Michigan, Central Michigan, Western Michigan, Northern Illinois
South: Kent State, Akron, Ohio, Miami (OH), Ball State, Western Kentucky, Middle Tennessee

I think the latter option is unquestionably better.

My understanding is that WKU and MTSU prefer to be in a southern-facing league for recruiting and culture purposes, so the issue may not be so much that they want to "move up" to the Owlmerican as it is they may want to eventually move South to it.

(This post was last modified: 11-04-2021 11:45 AM by Bogg.)